Future Development

Blockbusters will always have an audience and someone who wants to promote them(who doesn’t like having a part of the action?).  New writers can get in, if ever so slightly, if they accept losing all control over their stuff until they “make it”(and even some thereafter).  But unless a new writer shows himself or herself to be a proven seller quickly, traditional publishing houses tend to move on, much like an NFL team will move off of a quarterback that doesn’t demonstrate franchise skills in the first year or two.

That got me wondering what the reading world would be like if traditional publishers took time to nurture writers with potential and grow them into stars.  The NFL used to nurture quarterbacks – Terry Bradshaw was horrible his first few years, and Joe Montana took three or so years to break out.  That wouldn’t be allowed today, and we’d have lost all-time great QBs.  The same could be true of authors, whereby the inclination to move on so quickly leaves writers of potential in the dirt.  What writers need is promotion and a chance to get better, but will traditional publishing ever regain patience for that?

Some of the reticence may be a simple matter of supply and demand – there are more folks trying to become authors than publishers have spots for.  When someone doesn’t work out fast enough, it’s all too easy to just move on to the next one.  Sure, a middling writer can muddle on and have some success, but growth seems limited.  What would the landscape be in traditional publishing took some of these newbies under their wing?

Of course, that risks taking in and promoting talent that never pans out.  I doubt Ryan Leaf would’ve ever panned out I the NFL, no matter how much mentoring he got.  He just wasn’t cut out for the life.  The same risk exists for taking on unproven writers, and as much as I loathe traditional publishers, even I recognize that  they too have limited resources and are somewhat risk-averse.

As much as this is reality, I think it hampers the book market and prevents us from finding true talent.  JK Rowling comes out of nowhere at times, much like Patrick Mahomes, but we might also be losing Greg Baers and William Fortschens who don’t get room to grow today, much like we might’ve lost Phil Simms or Ken Stabler.  Would it be worth it for publishers to find the next big thing, even as a diamond in the rough, or are quick flashes our forever future?